Case odds in CS2
The odds of getting each rarity from a CS2 case, the average cost of a knife and why opening cases is a losing deal.
Valve has officially published case odds. They are the same for all regular weapon cases.
🎲 Odds by rarity
Mil-Spec (blue): 79.92%
Restricted (purple): 15.98%
Classified (pink): 3.20%
Covert (red): 0.64%
Rare Special Item (knife or gloves): 0.26%
That means on average 1 knife or gloves per roughly 385 openings.
💰 Why it is almost always a loss
Every opening needs a key, which costs more than most of the skins you get.
Almost 80% of drops are blue skins that are worth very little.
The average value of what you unbox is almost always lower than what you spent.
📌 StatTrak™
Roughly one in ten unboxed items is a StatTrak™ version.
🎯 What is better
If you want a specific skin, buy it on the Community Market. It is almost always cheaper than trying to unbox it.
You can sell cases from weekly drops instead of opening them.
⚠️ Important
Opening cases is a lottery. Do not spend money on it that you are not ready to lose.